Welcome to Election Analytics
Election Analytics is a web tool that tracks and analyzes polling data to forecast who will win the presidency and which party will secure control of the United States Senate. The analytics used are based on Bayesian statistics and operations research methodologies. Forecasts are based on currently available polling data and are updated as new polls become available. Each forecast provides a snapshot of the current state of the election and represents the outcome if the election was held on that day.
Current Forecast Given the Runoff in LouisianaIn the Louisiana Senate race, no candidate received more than 50% of the vote on November 4th. The top two candidates, Mary Landrieu (D) and Bill Cassidy (R), will advance to a runoff race held on December 6th. The forecast given below takes into account the final results across all other races and assumes that the current independent senators will caucus with the Democrats.
How Did We Do?There were 36 Senate races in 2014, and all but one have finished at this point. Our model correctly predicted 34 of the 35 races that have finished, though our final forecast incorrectly predicted that the Georgia Senate race would be decided by a runoff. The closest races were the following:
|Actual Percentage of Votes||Predicted Probability of Winning|
2 The Democrat columns for Kansas list the results for the independent candidate, Greg Orman.
3 The model correctly predicted a runoff in Louisiana. The candidates' probabilities are for the runoff race on December 6th.