Welcome to Election Analytics
Election Analytics tracks and analyzes polling data to forecast who will win the United States Presidency and which party will secure control of the United States Senate. Without any political commentary or partisan opinion, Election Analytics delivers the facts in a simple, concise format. Election Analytics, a student run STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) learning laboratory, uses Bayesian statistics and operations research methodologies to make sense of the daily stream of polling data reported in the national media. Election Analytics provides a snapshot of the current state of the election, forecasting the outcome if the election was held today. Available since 2008, Election Analytics provides a full history of its performance.
Summary of the 2016 ElectionPosted on: 11:00AM ET, Nov 9
On 8 November 2016, Donald J, Trump was elected the 45th President of the United States, baffling most political pundits and prognosticators. Election Analytics provided 21 scenarios, based on seven Undecided Voter Swing Scenarios (Very Strong Republican, Strong Republican, Mild Republican, Neutral, Mild Democrat, Strong Democrat, and Very Strong Democrat) and three match-ups (Four-Way: Trump vs Clinton vs Johnson vs Stein, Three-Way: Trump vs Clinton vs Johnson, Two-Way: Trump vs Clinton). The neutral undecided voter swing in the Four-Way race is what was showcased on the main page, which gave Donald Trump a 0.20% chance of winning the election, with a 242-296 Electoral College Vote in favor of Hillary Clinton.
Table 1A provides the chance of Trump winning the election and the expected number of Electoral College Votes that he would win across all these 21 scenarios. Blue indicates that Hillary Clinton was more likely to win, while red indicates that Donald Trump was more likely to win.
|Undecided Voter Swings Scenarios||Trump vs Clinton
vs Johnson vs Stein
|Trump vs Clinton
|Trump vs Clinton|
|Very Strong Republican||(15.65%, 259.30)||(37.03%, 266.61)||(77.66%, 274.63)|
|Strong Republican||(3.25%, 250.49)||(7.63%, 257.01)||(20.03%, 261.71)|
|Mild Republican||(0.63%, 245.71)||(2.38%, 251.43)||(4.90%, 254.41)|
|Neutral||(0.36%, 242.00)||(0.55%, 245.05)||(0.68%, 246.50)|
|Mild Democrat||(0.10%, 238.22)||(0.06%, 238.30)||(0.05%, 238.40)|
|Strong Democrat||(0.02%, 233.38)||(0.01%, 230.98)||(0.00%, 227.71)|
|Very Strong Democrat||(0.00%, 222.78)||(0.00%, 217.42)||(0.00%, 208.44)|
Table 1A: Chance of Donald Trump Winning & Expected Number of Electoral College Votes
In only one of the 21 scenarios did Donald Trump win the election (Undecided Voter Swing: Very Strong Republican, Two-Way race: Trump vs Clinton). In all three Undecided Voter Swings, the Very Strong Republican scenarios all give Trump’s chance of winning to be greater than 15%. The lower amount of support for the third party candidates also contributed to the election acting like a Two-Way race. This suggests that the undecided voters broke sharply to Donald Trump, which enabled his victory.
Can anything be learned from the 2012 election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney? Given no significant third party candidates, there were only seven scenarios, all reported in the Table 1B. Even in the most favorable environment for Romney, in terms of undecided voters, Obama still has a 98.69% chance of winning the election, which he did easily. This suggests that one must view all scenarios as a collection of options, rather than any one scenario as being the definitive outcome.
|Undecided Voter Swings Scenarios||Obama vs Romney|
|Very Strong Republican||(98.69%, 296.16)|
|Strong Republican||(99.77%, 300.44)|
|Mild Republican||(99.92%, 303.09)|
|Mild Democrat||(99.99%, 309.15)|
|Strong Democrat||(100.00%, 312.55)|
|Very Strong Democrat||(100.00%, 319.35)|
Table 1B: Chance of Barack Obama Winning & Expected Number of Electoral College Votes
On 8 November 2016, the Republican party retained control of the Senate, with a 52-48 majority. Election Analytics provided seven scenarios, based on various undecided voter swings (Very Strong Republican, Strong Republican, Mild Republican, Neutral, Mild Democrat, Strong Democrat, and Very Strong Democrat). The neutral undecided voter swing is what was showcased on the main page, which gave the Republicans a 60.85% chance of retaining control of the Senate.
Table 2 provides the chance of the Republicans retaining control of the Senate and the expected number Senate seats they would win across all these seven scenarios. Blue indicates that the Democrats had the most likely scenario for gaining control of the Senate, red indicates that the Republicans had the most likely scenario for retaining control of the Senate, and purple indicates a 50-50 tie was the most likely scenario.
|Undecided Voter Swings Scenarios||Republicans||Dems & Inds||Chance of Tie|
|Very Strong Republican||(98.68%, 52.04)||(0.02% 47.96)||1.30%|
|Strong Republican||(89.56%, 51.41)||(0.77%, 48.59)||9.66%|
|Mild Republican||(77.97%, 51.08)||(2.93%, 48.92)||19.10%|
|Neutral||(60.85%, 50.69)||(8.69%, 49.31)||30.45%|
|Mild Democrat||(40.81%, 50.25)||(20.41%, 49.75)||38.79%|
|Strong Democrat||(22.64%, 49.77)||(38.40%, 50.23)||38.96%|
|Very Strong Democrat||(3.51%, 48.80)||(77.67%, 51.20)||18.82%|
Table 2: Chance of the Republicans Retaining Control of the Senate & the Expected Number of Senate Seats that They Would Have
In four of the seven scenarios, the Republications had a higher than 50% chance of retaining control of the Senate. This suggests that the undecided voters were generally more favorable to the Republican candidates than their Democrat opposition.
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