Welcome to Election Analytics
Election Analytics is a web tool that tracks and analyzes polling data to forecast who will win the presidency and which party will secure control of the United States Senate. The analytics used are based on Bayesian statistics and operations research methodologies. Forecasts are based on currently available polling data and are updated as new polls become available. Each forecast provides a snapshot of the current state of the election and represents the outcome if the election was held on that day.
We are currently preparing for the 2016 elections (presidency and Senate), and will add forecasts as soon as the Republican and Democrat tickets have been determined and sufficient polling data becomes available.
Final Results of the 2014 Senate Election
How Did We Do?There were 36 Senate races in 2014. Our model correctly predicted 35 of the 36 races, missing only North Carolina. The election-day forecast incorrectly predicted that the race in Georgia would be decided by a runoff, but it did predict the overall winner correctly.
|Actual Percentage of Votes||Predicted Probability of Winning|
2 The Democrat columns for Kansas list the results for the independent candidate, Greg Orman.
3 On election day, the model correctly predicted a runoff in Louisiana. The percentages and probabilities reported here are for the runoff race on December 6th.